COOL UNDER PRESSURE

B/R Mag calculated the best crunch-time quarterbacks in the NFL in 2016, according to math. You may feel bad for Derek Carr—but you'll want to save a few tears for Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers

By Garth Sundem, B/R Insights and Chris Simms

January 17, 2017

You want to win an argument while watching the NFL playoffs? Trust the formula.

We asked stats guru Garth Sundem to develop a clutch-quarterback algorithm: Pull stats describing overall quarterback play, adjust them by how much better or worse he performed under pressure, then add special situations—game-winning drives, 21-plus-yard throws late in the game, turnovers inside an opponent's 30—and rank 'em for 2016.

Now that is clutch. Or at least that's our working definition of "clutch" based on 2016 regular-season stats. (Remember: Running a really good offense hurts your score—blowouts don't leave a lot of room to be clutch.)

Below, B/R's NFL analyst Chris Simms offers his reactions, all the way to the formula's No. 1 pick. Argue away.

Cody Kessler

Cody Kessler is a rookie quarterback who does not have NFL-starting-caliber potential. He wasn't helped by the worst team in football, with holes all over the roster. Little wonder he came in last.

Philip Rivers

It was a wild year for Philip Rivers. He kept the Chargers in a lot of games in the first three quarters, but he had some horrible fourth quarters in big losses. There were interceptions and missed throws that allowed teams to fight back and beat them.

Case Keenum

The Rams had the NFL's worst offensive system this season. Case Keenum suffers from a bad offensive line, bad running game and no great wide receivers. Moreover, he is not the most gifted QB in football.

Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz has big-time potential and a gunslinger mentality. He's a rookie QB with the least impressive wideout corps in football, and that's not a good recipe for clutch success.

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Negative on the Fitzmagic. Ryan Fitzpatrick's carelessness with the ball was a big reason his team started 1-5. Seven interceptions in the fourth quarter, in back-to-back games against the Seahawks and Chiefs. I'm surprised he is not lower on the list.

Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco was plagued by dumb mistakes in the fourth quarter all year long. The Ravens don't have a great offensive system, and when his top wide receiver is 37-year-old Steve Smith, it doesn't speak well to the weapons around him.

Ryan Tannehill

Ryan Tannehill had a good year. When the Dolphins lost, they lost badly, and when they won, they controlled the game in the fourth quarter. He wasn't asked to be clutch that often.

Blake Bortles

Blake Bortles is the king of meaningless fourth-quarter stats and is not a good enough thrower to ever truly be clutch. The Jaguars have the weapons around him to be a dangerous fourth-quarter team, but Bortles is usually so average in the first three quarters that it doesn't matter.

Aaron Rodgers

The Packers are a 6-10 football team without Aaron Rodgers. He has to be clutch all game long for them to win. He is the best one-man band in the NFL, with no running backs, no run game and a below-average defense. He is the greatest QB I have ever seen.

Andy Dalton

Andy Dalton and the Bengals have been pretty good in the fourth quarter over the last five years, but they lost that magic this year. They kept games close in the fourth but couldn't make the plays to win those 50-50 games.

Tyrod Taylor

Tyrod Taylor is exciting and capable of making big plays to win a game, but he's still not a good enough QB in the pocket to pick apart defenses late in the fourth consistently.

Matthew Stafford

The numbers don't tell the whole story here. Matthew Stafford is as clutch as it gets. No run game, no legit top-tier wideout and an average defense, yet his team made the playoffs. Some of the big comebacks were needed because he made a big mistake, but that's going to happen when you have to carry the offense.

Brian Hoyer

Brian Hoyer is a better QB than people think. He was doing good things before he got hurt, and the Bears offense was one of the best in football for a while there.

Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins is a good QB and played on one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. But he was not at his best late in games and made some bad decisions.

Trevor Siemian

Trevor Siemian is not the problem in Denver. He suffers from no pass protection, no run game and one of the least creative offenses in the NFL. It's hard to be clutch with those odds stacked against you.

Cam Newton

Cam Newton would freely admit this wasn't his best season. Bad pass protection, no running game and no top-tier wide receivers forced Cam to make some poor decisions late in games in 2016.

Eli Manning

Eli Manning has been clutch his whole career, but his powers are fading. The Giants have no run game and bad pass protection, and their QB has declining skills. It's all making for a less effective Eli in the fourth quarter.

Brock Osweiler

Brock Osweiler is a below-average thrower. The losing situations the Texans have been in during fourth quarters are usually due to his inaccuracy or bad decisions. It's tough to win when they depend on his passing game.

Tom Brady

Every quarter is treated like the fourth quarter in New England. The Patriots are a well-oiled machine on offense and usually control the game with the lead by then. Tom Brady will be clutch when he has to be.

Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer's creative and aggressive downfield passing game, with weapons around him, makes him dangerous in the clutch. His first three quarters of carelessness were the issue this year, and he's lost some arm speed.

Dak Prescott

I have never seen a more calm and unflappable rookie in my life than Dak Prescott. Think of everything he's dealt with, not least the endless Tony Romo talk. When he plays badly in the first three quarters, he has the maturity to block it out and ball out in the fourth.

Sam Bradford

Sam Bradford is better than people give him credit for. The Vikings have no run game, maybe the worst offensive line in the league and no top-tier wideout. But Bradford is smart and accurate, and he has a strong arm.

Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan is as accurate as they come. He might have the most creative offense in football, with a balanced run game and perhaps the NFL's best wide receiver in Julio Jones to throw to. This QB is dangerous in every quarter.

Jameis Winston

Nobody has more guts to throw into tight windows than Jameis Winston. He's particularly impressive for the below-average run game and weak pass protection around him. He's another player who is better in the fourth quarter than the first three.

Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota's accuracy, size and speed make him hard to stop in the fourth quarter. He has a top-notch run game to take pressure off the pass. If only he could cut out those turnovers in the first three quarters.

Alex Smith

Alex Smith is an accurate thrower who can use his feet to get first downs and has some of the best offensive weapons in football around him.

Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson is the second-best scrambling QB behind Aaron Rodgers. He can run or buy time, has a big arm and has been in a lot of pressure situations for a young player. He is as calm as they come in the clutch.

Drew Brees

Drew Brees has big-time weapons around him and an offensive system that is a machine for clutch quarterback numbers.

Colin Kaepernick

Colin Kaepernick still has a big arm and a ton of speed. He had little opportunity to be clutch in 2016, but in the fourth quarter he used simple schemes to help his offense get open. That also gave him more room to scramble and run.

Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck is expected to carry his team every week of the season, and he's more than capable. His athletic ability, along with his incredible downfield accuracy, makes him awesome in the fourth quarter.

Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben has been clutch for a long time. His dual ability to hang in the pocket with people around him and then throw a ball down the field as well as anyone always makes him dangerous in the clutch.

Derek Carr

Hard to argue with this. Derek Carr was special before his injury. His playmaking ability was second only to Aaron Rodgers this year, and he made big clutch throws late in games.