By Grant Hughes

A Brief History of the 2015-16 Postseason, as Told Through the Step-Back Jumper

Stephen Curry spent a regular season scoffing at shooting norms, so it’s no surprise he used the playoffs to further shift paradigms—one step-back jumper at a time. And though the unanimous MVP became the step-back ringleader, he wasn’t alone. Kyrie Irving hit one that’ll be remembered forever.

Much of what we know about shot selection suggests the step-back jumper should be a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency last resort.

It’s typically an isolation weapon, one utilized off the dribble against a defender who is, by definition, close enough to the shooter to necessitate a backward space-creating leap. The more we learn about play types and expected accuracy rates, the more we recognize the value of ball movement and spot-up looks. A step-back generally involves neither.

Sixteen of the 22 players who averaged at least 20 points per game during the regular season logged higher accuracy rates on catch-and-shoot attempts than pull-up attempts. It’s not really in dispute: Shots off the dribble tend to be harder than their standstill counterparts.

Just as a starting point, we’ve known for years an assisted field goal (and true step-backs in the sense we’re discussing them aren’t assisted) is worth roughly an extra third of a point per shot. Considering step-backs happen on the move against locked-in defenders, you’d think you were looking at a relatively wasteful shot type.

But surprisingly, the step-back actually produces a higher conversion rate than the average attempt. According to B/R Insights, NBA players shot 48.9 percent on step-backs in 2015-16 and 45.1 percent on every other shot.

Some practitioners are especially accomplished. And as you look through the data on volume and efficiency, plenty of big names come up.

Among players who attempted at least 20 step-back jumpers in the regular season, Carmelo Anthony (74.1 percent), Kawhi Leonard (71.4 percent) and John Wall (71.4 percent) stood out as the most accurate, per NBASavant.com:

In terms of volume, James Harden reigned supreme, per NBASavant.com:

Harden attempted a league-high 197 step-backs. Damian Lillard, who ranked second in attempts, didn’t even crack the century mark.

The Visual Evidence

Given the level of specialization and the small handful of very effective step-back shooters, maybe it’s no wonder NBA stars are turning to the shot when postseason survival hangs in the balance.

The only playoff game the Houston Rockets won came courtesy of a James Harden step-back (never mind the pushoff):

We saw step-back contagion define Game 3 between the Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers, with C.J. McCollum and Lillard (two frequent step-backers) firing them off like crazy:

Dwyane Wade caught the bug in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Toronto Raptors, taking and making three in a three-minute span:

And then, of course, Curry showed the Blazers’ novices what true step-back mastery looked like. He closed out Portland with a 5-of-5 step-back second half in Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals, punctuating the run with an absolute dagger over Al Farouq-Aminu:

The Data Says Step-Backs Are Trending Up

Harden’s game-winner was just one of many step-back buckets this postseason. And though his playoff stay was limited to one round, he’s still among postseason leaders with 10 makes and 19 attempts.

Curry led the field with 33 tries, and a list of the usual suspects—Lillard, Irving, McCollum, Wade and Kevin Durant—rounded out the other top attempt totals.

Broadly, we’re seeing a rise in step-back frequency lately—both in the regular season:

And in the playoffs:

Considering the declining accuracy rates on step-backs in large samples of regular-season data, it seems like we need an explanation for the rise in frequency.

What Gives?

In addition to the numbers showing step-backs on the rise, there appears to be an increased emphasis on instruction.

It wasn’t always this way.

According to NBA TV’s Mike Fratello: “The step-back was not a big part of (Michael Jordan’s)  game, nor anyone else’s at that point. It hadn’t developed to the point of being a go-to escape move like it is today. You don’t run plays specifically for it, you have individuals that have worked and developed that move and have it in their offensive repertoire.”

Developing the step-back is a priority, hitting it is a playoff must and yet there’s still the overarching logical incongruity. It may not seem like a great shot, but it’s on the rise.

Why?

NBA TV and NBA on TNT analyst Brent Barry has some ideas: “Two reasons for the expanded use of the step-back jumper are the fact that players shoot more frequently from the perimeter and because today’s defenses seem to be more likely to switch personnel. Especially late in the shot clock, the best way for smaller players to gain an advantage for shooting the basketball is the step-back, often from mid-range or further back.”

That certainly lines up with the most conspicuous highlights of the postseason: Curry attacking a switched-out Steven Adams with serpentine dribbles and lightning-fast backward leaps.

Maybe the rise of the step-back was inevitable. Maybe shifting defensive trends and adaptable players meant things would always shake out this way.

Whether this is the new normal or not, it’s going to take some time to get used to guys like Curry turning the improbable into the routine.

Shot data courtesy of NBASavant.com unless otherwise specified.

Quotes obtained firsthand.